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“Diversification works when we need it most,” Hyzy adds, “and it could be needed more than ever as you look to integrate thematic, long-term investments with your core portfolio to power your investments into a new era of growth.” “Take advantage of a wide range of industries, capitalizations and geographic locations,” says Hyzy, who suggests considering thematic portfolio additions in defense, power generation and other areas of rising global demand that have the potential for outsized long-term growth. Split decisions, such as occurred in July, September and October 2025, can reflect differences in outlook about economic growth, inflation and the speed of rate hikes or cuts. Having the cost of capital come down at such a time could provide additional fuel for a wide range of companies, further broadening participation in market gains. “From energy grids and data centers to defense systems and digital platforms, power is driving the global economy — and shaping the outlook for 2026,” he says. “From energy grids and data centers to defense systems and digital platforms, power is driving the global economy — and shaping the outlook for 2026.”
Cardinal Energy Ltd (tse:cjto) Seasonal Chart
The third thing is that China– the third risk is China somehow scales the moat on its own with its own lithography and semiconductor technology. Private fixed investment in information processing equipment & software as a share of potential GDP, percent. A gold line shows MSCI all world equity index for info tech, and a blue line shows all world equity index. And if you look at the sectors that way, all of a sudden, there’s an inherent sensibility to the way the market’s being priced. The first chart has the title S&P 500 price to book and R O E. The second is S&P 500 versus hyper scalers and semi scalers. And Oracle is showing the market what happens when you push too hard to finance this stuff.
Cathie Wood’s 2026 Outlook: The US Economy Is A Coiled Spring – Ark Invest
Cathie Wood’s 2026 Outlook: The US Economy Is A Coiled Spring.
Posted: Thu, 15 Jan 2026 08:00:00 GMT source
Global Research And Market Insights
Is there going to be a recession in 2025 or 2026?
Economists broadly expect the U.S. will avoid a recession in 2026, due to government spending from the “One Big Beautiful Bill” and increased investment in artificial intelligence. But inflation staying above the Fed's 2% target raises questions about whether a true soft landing is achievable in the coming year.
So far, most people that have used AI have interacted with text-to-text chatbots, which utilize little computing power when compared with other uses of AI, such as image/video generation, agentic systems, and robotics. Of the 46 AI stocks, 44 had a drawdown of at least 20% in 2025. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Financial Stability And Stablecoins
Last week also offered some clarity on the two big risks. The reaction to earnings from Meta (on the upside) and Microsoft (on the downside) illustrated the market’s discernment. Deutsche Bank does not give tax or legal advice; prospective investors should seek advice from their own tax advisers and/or lawyers before entering into any investment. Staying invested with a defined strategic asset allocation will be key, as attempts to perfectly time market entry and exit points can often result in missing the best-performing days and weeks. This will enable them to respond to market developments in line with their personal investment strategy.
So I feel like we’re getting closer to some kind of power constraint wall. And the same thing is now impacting the simpler single cycle turbines, whose costs have also doubled, and whose delivery times have also gone up a lot. Delivery times are three to seven years. A bar chart with the title Not enough production capacity, Global gas turbine orders. We have a chart that shows that for 10 or 12 utilities, how much are they charging their regular customers for electricity?
Watch These 4 Key Market Backstops For Signs Stocks Could Tumble
- Piper Sandler credits "waning" inflation as a support to US equity markets, comparing core personal consumption expenditure data, a measure of inflation favored by the Fed, to market performance.
- Foreign markets can be more volatile than U.S. markets due to increased risks of adverse issuer, political, market, or economic developments, all of which are magnified in emerging markets.
- Importantly, market performance rarely mirrors the level of earnings growth — returns are often more sensitive to changes in expectations.
- That isn’t a bad environment for the market; it’s just different relative to what was the norm leading up to the pandemic (and in years like 2024).
- Another bucket is companies that are supposed to benefit from selling products and services related to all this.
- IShares unlocks opportunity across markets to meet the evolving needs of investors.
Bolded FY26 percentages indicate higher y/y earnings growth relative to FY25. Color scale applied to each sector row with dark green indicating highest y/y earnings growth and dark red indicating lowest y/y earnings growth. Sector rotations have been violent at times this year, and we expect rotations to persist alongside fickle appetites of investors. All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. All corporate names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The primary concern is that it creates a self-reinforcing, potentially unsustainable loop of investment and demand that may obscure genuine market value.
This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Unstable environments bring less reliable probabilities because the underlying relationships are changing in real time.
- AI and non-AI companies comprised by a custom basket by GPS Investment strategy.
- But the average S&P company spends about 10% of its revenues on CapEx and R&D, but OK, that includes a lot of companies that aren’t necessarily very CapEx intensive.
- We think these statistics will remain among the most important for gauging the health of the labor market moving forward.
Innovator Us Equity Power Buffer Etf (amex:psep) Seasonal Chart
Ultimately, resilient consumer spending and another year of double-digit earnings growth fueled a second-half rally. Looking beyond capital and energy inputs, investors and developers will do well to focus on human capital – that is, the labor required to build out data centers – the supply of which is dented by current immigration policy in the US. Looking ahead, the outlook highlights underappreciated dynamics that could shape the next phase of growth in both the US and globally. Today, 99% of stablecoins are backed by the US dollar, creating a concentration risk at a time when the dollar itself is expected to soften further in 2026. In addition, certain policy shifts may have longer term negative impacts for the economy – about which markets remain stubbornly complacent.”
- Post-pandemic inflation uncertainty, larger supply-side and fiscal pressures, and heightened rate volatility have undermined the ability of duration to effectively hedge equity risk.
- Deutsche Bank does not give tax or legal advice; prospective investors should seek advice from their own tax advisers and/or lawyers before entering into any investment.
- One driver of that turn in the labor market might be the positive growth effects from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which provides considerable stimulus to both consumers and businesses.
- Last year, the S&P 500’s median weekly return was positive in weeks with net upgrades to forward earnings per share forecasts, and negative in weeks with net downgrades.13
- You can see in the chart that the Great Moderation was marked by a mostly positive relationship between stocks and bond yields—meaning, the market did better when bond yields rose, given better prospects for economic growth.
I consult or invest on behalf of a financial institution. EquityClock.com offers the largest source of seasonal investment profiles on the internet. Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.86.
Who benefits the most from a recession?
- Healthcare Providers.
- Financial Advisors.
- Auto Repair and Maintenance Technicians.
- Home Maintenance Stores.
- Home Staging Experts.
- Rental Agents and Property Management Companies.
- Grocery Stores.
- Bargain and Discount Stores.
Earnings To The Rescue
But there’s a lot more internal coherence to the way the markets are being priced than a lot of things I read. So you may believe that investors are paying too much for growth right now. And one way to do that is—we have a chart in here that looks at price-to-book ratios relative to return on earnings. Let’s adjust PE for margins and profitability and earnings growth. When we look at the free cash flow to revenue ratios of these stocks, they’re substantially above the average for the market.
And there’s another important chart in here to Everestex review help you understand why. The other thing, too, is there’s a data center backlash. So there’s a chart in here that I think is the most important one, which is, how much capacity is the United States adding each year? And so there’ll be a big data center section in there. Data center spending, electric power, going up a lot. The lines for data centers and electricity go up, while office buildings comes down.
